Integrated Modeling Environment Project

The strategic goal of the Integrated Modeling Environment (IME) Project is to build capacity to meet IIASA’s growing needs for integrated modeling support where commonly known methodology and/or general-purpose modeling tools are inadequate. The long-term aim is to strengthen IIASA’s in-house capabilities and competitive advantage in modeling complex problems. The strategic goal is decomposed into three objectives: (1) Integrate and extend modeling methods and tools developed to address individual demands into an advanced Web-based modeling environment adapted specifically to the needs of IIASA’s programs. (2) Develop methods and tools for policy analyses to cope with inherent endogenous uncertainties and risks with potential catastrophic consequences, proper representation of abrupt changes, spatial and temporal distributional heterogeneities, vulnerabilities, and robust solutions. (3) Develop methodology and tools for integrated model analysis aimed at combining the capabilities of different methods (such as various types of simulation, optimization, multicriteria model analysis, sensitivity analysis) with data mining technology. The relevance of the IME activities to IIASA objectives and mission will be achieved by a continuation of the long-term collaboration with (1) IIASA applied programs that need new modeling methods, and (2) networks of leading researchers in the pertinent fields of science. Introduction Methodological activities at IIASA fall into two categories. First, each IIASA program develops and exploits disciplinary methodology pertinent to its research; often such methodology includes modeling methods and tools: either standard (general-purpose) or discipline-specific. Second, many of IIASA programs develop models for which established modeling methods or standard modeling tools are not adequate. IME addresses a part of (defined implicitly by the characteristics of modeling activities presented in points 1 to 6 below) the needs for methodological research and support of the second category. The relevance of advanced modeling methodology to policy issues is justified by the characteristics of the models developed for analyzing policy-related problems, and thus support the corresponding decision-making processes. Such models have growing complexity and size, and are often developed by integrating models and/or data developed by different teams; they also need to properly treat uncertainty and risks, as well as spatial and temporal distributions. Moreover, the modeling processes supporting policy making have to meet the strong requirements of: credibility, transparency, replicability of results, integrated model analysis, controllability (modification of model specification and data, and various views on, and 1 In collaboration with Yuri Ermoliev, the Institute Scholar, whose research will become a key part of the IME project. 2 Methodology is understood (following Webster’s dictionary) as the system of principles, procedures, and practices applied to a particular branch of knowledge. 3 Other areas of methodology are addressed in the research plan of IIASA’s Dynamic Systems Program.